The Second Wave that isn’t-Part 2

You should have woken up this morning and read this headline:

Deaths from Covid 19 continue to drop.  Intense testing discovers many more people have had coronavirus than thought, reducing the odds of getting it or dying to 1/10th of what they were.

Wouldn’t you think you may hear about deaths dropping on the news?  Well, it starts to make you think that Fake News isn’t fake.

New CDC report says we are vastly undercounting Covid 19 cases

When I started Part 1 of this topic on June 14th we had 24,489,000 tests done.  Today we hit 34,165,000 tests completed.  That about 10 million tests in 2 weeks and 2 days.  That combined with the fact that the CDC report from last Friday says there are 20 million people that have had the virus and never knew. This of course makes it much less deadly.  That means that as of now 6.9% of the country has had the virus. So as we test, we come up with huge numbers. And some states are counting those people who never got sick as “new cases”

Before Friday you had a 130,000/2,727,314 chance of dying. That is about 48 deaths per thousand.  Now you have about a 130,111/24,000,000. Now your odds of dying are .0057 which is one out of 1800. And this should fall rapidly as more asymptomatic cases are found.

And, if you are not in a high-risk group your odds are mathematically near ZERO.

if you do catch the virus you only have about a 1 in ten chance of even developing symptoms. This is all good.  We are building herd immunity.

Actual Coronavirus Infections Vastly Undercounted, C.D.C. Data Showshttps://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/27/health/coronavirus-antibodies-asymptomatic.html

CDC admits there have been over 20 million Coronavirus cases  https://outkick.com/cdc-now-estimates-there-have-been-over-20-million-coronavirus-cases/

Soccer Moms at Albertson’s are not dying from the virus.  It is a very specific subset of our population.  It is people over 65 and people with underlying conditions.

Antibody tests and “probable cases” are being counted in many states as new cases.

C.D.C. Test Counting Error Leaves Epidemiologists ‘Really Baffled’ https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/22/us/politics/coronavirus-tests-cdc.html

Are Antibody tests included in Ohio Data?https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/continuing-coverage/coronavirus/local-coronavirus-news/are-antibody-tests-included-in-the-states-reporting-yes-and-no good explanation of “probable case”

How Virginia Juked Its COVID-19 Data https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/covid-19-tests-combine-virginia/611620/

This could only be driven by the media and politics.  It is very hard to find this information.  It seems to fade from the internet over time.  Why does the media want us to be more scared than we need to be? Because that is what the media does! One writer calls it “panic porn.”

Migrant worker areas continue to drive case numbers, and are being carpet bombed with testing.

This is a large problem.  It is just not happening in the U.S.  It is happening in Germany and many other places where workers are kept housed in terrible conditions.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/23/germany-reckons-with-second-wave-risk-336077

https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-meat-industry-under-fire-after-covid-19-outbreaks/a-53502751

My idea:  Migrants average 13.99 and hour.  Let’s say $14.  We constantly hear, “No one will do those jobs!”  Well maybe the government could subsidize or mandate a higher wage.  I have no idea of the cost of that, but would guess it is less costly than juggling millions of migrant workers and the costs and headaches of letting people in and trying to make sure they go back out?  In College, there were a lot of guys who “bucked bails” (lifting hay bales on flatbed trucks) for $4-$5 which was double the minimum wage of 2.30 in 1977.  And there were plenty of them to do it at that wage. 

Another bit of made up news has been that “more young people” are getting Covid 19.   

Well, it turns out that 45% of migrant workers are 14-34 years old.  That’s not to say increased partying had no effect.  We want healthy young people to get this virus!  We have to increase herd immunity among this mobile age group who has almost no risk of severe symptoms or death.

In Summary there are five main takeaways:

  1. We have more like 23 million cases not 2.7 million. Millions more will be found as testing ramps up, further reducing your odds.
  2. Antibody and “probable cause” cases are still being counted in many areas as “new cases.”
  3. Deaths is a much more reliable statistic than new cases and they continue to drop
  4. The horrible living conditions of migrant workers continue to drive new case numbers
  5. The media pedals “panic porn.”

See you next time, if I can recognize you in your zombie mask,

Craig

These comments and opinions are solely those of the author.  

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